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Yes, You Can Time the Market! |
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Reviews |
| | No you cant !  |
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A good primer on analysis, moving averages, and cheap vs. expensive. There is a major hole in this book: When is it time to sell? You will find no analysis. Ben and Phil only make the case for when to enter a position in a S&P500 index fund, and when to avoid adding to the position. When the indicator suggests stocks are high, buy t-bills until the indicator changes.
If you use one of the timing indicators to put money in, what about taking it out, thereby avoiding a "reversion to the mean"? If you are only timing an entry and not an exit, you aren't timing... So in my opinion, NO you can't time the market (not by reading this book). |
| | A big disappointment  |
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I had previously read, and definitely recommend, a book by the same authors "Yes, You Can Still Retire Comfortably!". It was straightforward, practical, to the point. And in that book, they referred many times to this earlier book of theirs. I thought ... wow! ... if these guys can make market timing as simple as they made retirement planning, the world is a wonderful place.
I was wrong. Simple? Yes. Totally simple. But, let me save you the time. While making a convincing case, they "prove" that only a fool (and I do not mean that with a capital F) would have bought stocks since about 1984. If you believe that, buy this book.
In short ... buy their retirement book. Skip this one. |
| | Awful. Just awful! |
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The authors not only completely fail to recognize the roll that randomness plays on their poorly conceived "strategy", they also profess to being able to eliminate the single biggest risk of investing in the stock market. If their secret really worked, why sell it to anyone? Why not invest everything they have, make a killing, and retire to a country of their own? The worst part is that this pair has access to DFA funds. That's a shame. It gives them credibility when none is deserved. I guess Ben wants to win all the money back (from other peoples' wallets) that he lost in his last game show . . . |
| | Specious Pseudo-Scientific Drivel |
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The authors provide a lot of sophisticated-sounding analysis to substantiate their "novel" approach to market timing. As evidenced by some of the reviews on this site, this approach succeeds in garnering the authors their share of believers.
However, their analysis is in reality quite unsophisticated. Scratch beneath the surface and you will come across profound breakdowns in logic and a host of invalid analytical techniques. Some of the book's most egregious failings are detailed by reviewer Gaetan Lion. I recommend you read his review---he hits the nail right on the head. |
| | Time the market -- yes, but there's a better way  |
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Ben Stein is a "celebrity" of sorts, and his name is associated with money, hosting the TV game show Win Ben Stein's Money. It is only natural for him to write an investment book. I don't know why Stein and his co-author decided to promote this particular investment strategy. Nevertheless, I think this book would familiarize novice investors with some essential terms and concepts, so it might be a good introductory lesson in investing.
For a system to use for real investing, I would recommend perusing the columns of Paul Merriman and Mark Hulbert on the CBSMarketWatch website. They have tracked the performance of a simple moving average market timing system. It is about as good as buy and hold, but with less risk, because it takes you out of the market in severe downturns. You have to religiously follow it, of course, even when all your emotions are telling you the opposite. This is a problem with any trading system, of course.
Another system followed by Hulbert is seasonal investing -- only being in the market at certain times of the year when gains are most likely.
With a little effort, one can find better market timing systems -- the information is free on the web. However, I've read Stein's books for basic knowledge. I refuse to follow his ideas slavishly, and I wouldn't recommend anyone else do so, either. |
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